Segnalo un articolo di Ettore Gotti Tedeschi published Tuesday, November 16, 2010 on the "Sole 24 Ore". Overwhelmed as we are by Italian political quagmire of the present, on the eve of yet another hard labor constituency, I think a real breath of fresh air, a reflection on the direction of travel and Italy, I hope post-Berlusconi, will take to build your own future. It seems to me that Gotti Tedeschi, while struggling for a few weeks with legal problems as president of the Vatican bank, on which he has insured that will clarify everything, I think is a good example of economic-policy adviser for culture, discussing with simplicity but also completeness and rigor of scenarios and choices facing our country on the chessboard European and global level, where all countries are making their moves. It would be best that Italy chooses to go, and for me the direction-Germany goes well, in order to avoid that in fact others choose for us. Here is the text that is reported, quoting the source:
"To benefit our country in output from the crisis and to recover economically better, with whom it would be worth allies (if this were possible)? With the U.S. or China? The My temptation is to begin and conclude with considerations on moral affinity or no economic culture based on religious roots of different religions in particular on whether or not a creator God. This is because my concern at the end, it is not both in understanding what alliance can afford to stay, or return, rich as soon as possible, but as it ensures, or rather, growth, respect for human dignity in the world.
Even the pope seems to believe that the crisis should be taken seriously, especially since the deleveraging will mean for us in the West at least five years of austerity. So the agricultural economy can return to really be a resource for the future provided we do not build new competitive models with the poorest countries for which this is the only resource. Not to mention that many poor people in rich countries work in agriculture. For twenty years we have made alliances on favorable model consumer-oriented only import low-cost, without worrying too much to create a strategy that also develop in-house jobs.
With the U.S., a symbol of freedom and democracy, Italy has an old history of affinity. The economic crisis has, however, a bit 'blurred this image. The U.S. product for two decades, growth in consumer debt (especially families), unsustainable, which blew up the financial system by extending the crisis to the world. That did it for the good of the world, supporting the defense against injustice and terrorism, or only to ensure balance of economic power towards the growth of new powers in emerging countries, or solo per non deludere il sogno americano di benessere fondato sulla fiducia nel futuro, non è oggetto di queste considerazioni. Allearsi con gli Usa in questo momento comporterebbe vantaggi e svantaggi.
I vantaggi per noi sarebbero soprattutto di poter disporre di tecnologia e capitali privati di cui le nostre imprese abbisognano. Gli svantaggi stanno nella loro situazione finanziaria debole. Gli Usa stanno nazionalizzando il debito privato eccessivo e non sarebbero in condizioni di migliorare il nostro debito pubblico. Non ci avvantaggerebbero nella necessità di crescere le esportazioni visto che il presidente Obama considera prioritario sostenere l'export Usa per recuperare occupazione interna. Per farlo sembra utilizzare lo strumento di svalutazione del dollaro protectionism and give an idea to the Chinese imports. These two operations together with the growth of money supply the Fed, if left unchecked, will result in monetary inflation, cost of raw materials and prices.
With China we have a great past history to boast and the political and cultural differences should not be underestimated. An alliance with her (if possible) would probably also question the relationship with the "jealous girlfriend" who is the United States. But China is becoming a huge consumer market that we could benefit. Then he has to invest enormous resources, both in our national debt, and in that of businesses and banks. It may help to recapitalize and sustain our exports. The fact is that could do it with the intent to take our challenges to make an expansion in production and stable economic control and even final. I'd be a bit 'would not be surprised if, eventually, China and the U.S. to have to (reluctantly neck) ally. And the alliance between two large, too large to not find an agreement, very little attention given to our children ...
There is a potential third way to think about? According to many essays this is the time to build a true Europe. To achieve today's Europe has also the impression that could not be disregarded by Germany, who heads the European economy. And we have affinity with Germany and habit of working together (and Bavaria are the Veneto area economy for years). With his help we could better define a strategy for production, export and even models of concerted union-productive. Germany also natural and technological resources, that we missing. What might be difficult (but exciting) for us is to be able to "keep their pace," the economic model, public spending, efficiency.
I do not think we have many other choices, it is true we have a unique structure of SMEs with unique entrepreneurial skills, but we also have high fixed costs and consequent high taxes in a country of old, we have not always cost-competitive, we have not always sufficient technology , we no longer defensible as unique products in mercato globale. Ma per carità, non arriviamo a dover decidere troppo tardi sulla base del vecchio principio perdente: Usa, Cina o Germania, purché se magna...
di Ettore Gotti Tedeschi, dal Sole 24 Ore di Martedì 16/11/2010
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